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Five Things to watch in Sunday’s Daytona 500


DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- The Daytona 500 provides countless storylines to watch for the NASCAR fans in attendance and those at home. Cup Series debuts and historic trends are only two examples.

Several hours remain before the 2 p.m. ET green flag time, so let's dig into some of the biggest things to watch Sunday afternoon and evening.

Things to watch in the Daytona 500

1. The weather -- The biggest concern every year at the Daytona 500 is the weather. Multiple races have been delayed or postponed due to rain. This includes the 2020 Daytona 500, which was the last featuring President Donald Trump as an attendee.

The 2021 race was delayed by rain. It still took place on the scheduled Sunday; it just finished well after midnight. Last season's race moved to Monday due to heavy rainfall in the Daytona Beach area.

According to WeatherUnderground, the weather could impact the crown jewel race once again. The forecast calls for thunderstorms in the afternoon. This includes a 53% chance of rain at the scheduled green flag time (2 p.m. ET). The percentage increases to 83% by 3 p.m.

Fortunately for NASCAR fans, WeatherUnderground says that the rain will not last particularly long. The percentage drops to 19% at 5 p.m. ET and then continues to decrease as the evening progresses.

2. The pivotal 20th start -- Kyle Busch has accomplished a staggering amount of success in his Cup Series career. He has won two championships and 63 races. He has captured crown jewels at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and Darlington Raceway.

What he hasn't done is win the Daytona 500, the biggest race on the schedule. Busch came close with a runner-up finish in 2019. He was also in the lead on mile 500 in 2023. The only problem is that this was under caution. The race went to overtime, and he finished 19th after a crash.

Sunday marks Busch's 20th start in the Great American Race. This means he has a chance to repeat history. Back in 1998, Dale Earnhardt won the only Daytona 500 of his career in his 20th start. This set the NASCAR record for the most starts in the crown jewel race before a win.

"Twenty years of trying," Busch said on Daytona 500 Media Day. "There was another storied racer of the past that won on his 20th try and that was a pretty big deal.

"He was a former RCR driver as well so it'd certainly be nice to win that race and do it with RCR in the No. 8 Zone Chevrolet."

3. A new winner -- The Daytona 500 is known for its unpredictability. Trevor Bayne winning the race in only his second start in 2011 is a fitting example, as is the number of different winners in recent seasons.

Five different drivers have won the Daytona 500 in the last five seasons. This includes Denny Hamlin (2020), Michael McDowell (2021), Austin Cindric (2022), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2023), and William Byron (2024).

Will the Daytona 500 continue this trend?

4. The starting position -- Winning the pole is a point of pride for NASCAR drivers and teams. They get to lead the field to the green flag, and they gain an early advantage in races. However, winning the pole has not translated to Daytona 500 success in recent seasons.

In fact, the last time the pole winner won the Daytona 500 was in 2000. Dale Jarrett started from the pole and led 89 laps before celebrating in victory lane. This was his third win in the crown jewel race.

Diving deeper into the numbers reveals that the Daytona 500 winner has started 10th or worse in six of the last seven races.

William Byron started 18th last season before winning. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. started 31st in 2023. Michael McDowell started 17th in 2021. Denny Hamlin started 21st in 2020 and 10th in 2019. Austin Dillon started 14th in 2018.

Austin Cindric, who starts on the front row in Sunday's race, is the lone exception. He won in 2022 after starting fifth overall.

5. The varying experience levels -- Forty-one drivers will suit up for Sunday's season-opening Daytona 500. They will provide a varying level of experience. The majority of drivers have numerous starts in the crown jewel race. For example, Martin Truex Jr. is making his 21st start in the race. Kyle Busch is making his 20th start.

Other drivers, however, have far less experience. This list includes Riley Herbst (two Daytona 500 starts), Justin Allgaier (two starts), and Zane Smith (two starts). Shane van Gisbergen has never suited up for a Daytona 500 but has competed in the summer race one time.

Helio Castroneves, the 41st driver on the starting grid, has no Cup Series starts on his resume. His only experience in a Cup car was a Duel race on Thursday night.

Why does this storyline matter? The simple answer is that veteran drivers with extensive experience competing in this high-pressure race know what to expect.

They (mostly) know the right moves to make at the end of the stages and race to put themselves in position. Drivers with far less experience have a greater chance of making an ill-timed push or an overly aggressive block.

Mistakes still happen and cause crashes, but these drivers with more experience still have a strong foundation to rely on in the heat of the moment.